I sure do hope your assessment is accurate, John.
Biden would not be my first choice for the nomination. I believe he is a decent man and I also think that his achievements in office have been under-valued. I will vote for him, though.
I listen every day to the podcast "The Daily," from the New York Times. Today's edition (4/26/23) had an excellent electoral analysis. The upshot is that all the Dems really need would be to capture the electoral votes of AZ, GA, or MI to win the election. The Republicans would have to win all three, which is unlikely. Give a listen if you can.